A cross-sectional analysis using global data from 185 countries found that by 2050, cancer incidence will increase by 77 percent, and mortality from them by 90 percent. Moreover, as reported in JAMA Network Open, in countries with a low Human Development Index, these rates will triple.
Since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, cancer prevention and treatment services worldwide have suffered significant disruptions. The consequences of these ongoing disruptions may disproportionately impact the volume and quality of cancer care in certain regions. Furthermore, most global estimates of cancer incidence and mortality were conducted without data after 2020, making it difficult to predict these important public health indicators.
To assess the current state of the global cancer burden, a team of scientists led by Habtamu Mellie Bizuayehu of Charles Sturt University analyzed the latest data from the Global Cancer Observatory. The researchers assessed differences in the prevalence of 36 tumor types based on population-based data from 185 countries and territories. By 2050, the total number of cancer cases is projected to increase to 35.3 million, a 76.6 percent increase over the 2022 estimate. Similarly, the number of deaths from cancer is projected to reach 18.5 million in 2050, an 89.7 percent increase over the 2022 estimate.
Overall, in 2022, the incidence of cancer was 178.9 cases per 100,000 people. The most common cancer type was breast cancer, accounting for 13.3 percent of cancer patients. The next most common types of neoplasms were prostate cancer, colorectal cancer, lung cancer, and non-melanoma skin cancer. Furthermore, in 2050, lung cancer will be the leading cause of cancer and the leading cause of death. Increases in incidence and mortality from 2022 to 2050 will be observed among both men and women, but the former will experience a greater increase.
In 2022, global cancer incidence rates were observed in Oceania, while cancer mortality rates were observed in Europe. While the number of cancer cases and deaths is projected to increase in all regions by 2050, the rate in Africa is expected to increase more than fivefold compared to Europe. Overall, the number of cancer cases and deaths in countries with a low Human Development Index will increase almost threefold, compared to a moderate increase in countries with a very high Human Development Index (142.1 percent increase in incidence versus 41.7 percent, and 146.1 percent increase in cancer mortality versus 56.8 percent of cancer deaths).
According to scientists, these estimates could help develop preventative programs to combat cancer. Access to early diagnosis, optimal treatment, and effective rehabilitation could slow the predicted trends.
We previously reported that scientists have recorded an increase in vaginal cancer cases worldwide.
