A cross-sectional analysis using global data from 185 countries found that by 2050, cancer incidence will increase by 77 percent and cancer mortality by 90 percent. In countries with a low human development index, these rates will triple, JAMA Network Open reports .
Cancer prevention and treatment services around the world have been severely disrupted since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. The impact of these ongoing disruptions may disproportionately affect the volume and quality of cancer care in certain regions of the world. However, most global estimates of cancer incidence and mortality have not included data after 2020, making it difficult to predict these important public health indicators.
To assess the current state of the global cancer burden, a team of scientists led by Habtamu Mellie Bizuayehu from Charles Sturt University analysed the latest data from the Global Cancer Observatory. The researchers assessed differences in the prevalence of 36 cancer types based on population-based data from 185 countries and territories. The total number of cancer cases is projected to increase to 35.3 million by 2050, an increase of 76.6 per cent from the estimated 2022 total. Similarly, the number of cancer deaths is projected to reach 18.5 million in 2050, an increase of 89.7 per cent from the 2022 total.
Overall, the incidence of tumors in 2022 was 178.9 cases per 100,000 people. The most common type of tumor was breast cancer, which accounted for 13.3 percent of cancer patients. The next most common types of neoplasms were prostate cancer, colorectal cancer, lung cancer, and non-melanoma skin cancer. In addition, in 2050, lung cancer will be the leading cause of cancer and the leading cause of death. The increase in morbidity and mortality from 2022 to 2050 will be observed among both men and women, but the former will experience a higher increase.
In 2022, the global cancer incidence rates were observed in Oceania and cancer deaths in Europe. In 2050, the number of cancer cases and deaths is projected to increase in all regions, but the rate is expected to increase more than fivefold in Africa compared to Europe. Overall, the number of cancer cases and deaths in countries with a low Human Development Index is expected to almost triple, compared with a moderate increase in countries with a very high index (incidence increase of 142.1 percent versus 41.7 percent, cancer deaths increase of 146.1 percent versus 56.8 percent of cancer deaths).
According to scientists, these estimates can help in developing preventive programs to combat cancer. Access to early diagnosis, optimal treatment and effective rehabilitation can slow down the predicted trends.
Earlier we reported that scientists have recorded an increase in the incidence of vaginal cancer around the world.
