Scientists from seven countries conducted a population-based cohort simulation study and concluded that a ban on tobacco sales to people born after a certain date (already enacted in New Zealand, but repealed in 2024, and under consideration in other countries) could prevent nearly 1.2 million lung cancer deaths in 185 countries by the end of the 21st century. Julia Rey-Brandariz and colleagues simulated a scenario through 2095 in which tobacco sales are banned to those born between January 1, 2006, and December 31, 2010 (assuming this measure is strictly enforced). At least 15 years of country-specific indicators from World Health Organization registries were used to predict lung cancer mortality, and age-stratified mortality data for never-smokers, adjusted for population size, were used to calculate avertable deaths. The results were published in the journal The Lancet Public Health.
The birth cohort included more than 650.5 million people born during the specified period. According to the researchers' calculations, at the current mortality rate, more than 2.95 million of them (almost 1.85 million men and 1.11 million women) will die from lung cancer. A scenario of introducing and achieving a "tobacco-free generation" could prevent almost 1.19 million of these deaths, including almost 845,000 in men and more than 342,000 in women. Among global regions, this effect would be most pronounced in Central and Eastern Europe for men and in Western Europe for women, and least pronounced in Central Africa.
