A population-based cohort simulation study by researchers from seven countries found that a ban on tobacco sales to people born after a certain date (already in place in New Zealand but due to be lifted in 2024, and under consideration in other countries) could prevent nearly 1.2 million lung cancer deaths in 185 countries by the end of the 21st century. Julia Rey-Brandariz and colleagues simulated a scenario through 2095 in which tobacco sales were banned to those born between 1 January 2006 and 31 December 2010 (assuming that the measure was strictly enforced). They used at least 15 years of country-specific rates from World Health Organization registries to predict lung cancer mortality, and age-stratified mortality data for never-smokers relative to population size to calculate avertable deaths. The results are published in the journal The Lancet Public Health.
The birth cohort included more than 650.5 million people born during the period. According to the researchers’ calculations, at the current mortality rate, more than 2.95 million of them (almost 1.85 million men and 1.11 million women) will die from lung cancer. The scenario of introducing and achieving a “tobacco-free generation” could prevent almost 1.19 million of these deaths, including almost 845,000 in men and more than 342,000 in women. Among the regions of the world, this effect would be most pronounced in Central and Eastern Europe for men and in Western Europe for women, and least pronounced in Central Africa.